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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a Test.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, their chicanery, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.